Official Bosnia is happy: The EU decided last week to start accession negotiations with Bosnia. This means tough “reforms” at the expense of the majority of the population. There are no alternatives. And all in all, joining the EU will be better than not joining the EU.

Ulica Maršala Tita in Sarajevo was draped with European Union flags over the weekend. Given the EU’s decidedly neoliberal constitution and economic policy, the choice of location is not without a certain irony.

One wonders how much the official cheering reflects the mood of the population. In the fall of 2023, more than 60 percent of the population stated in the Eurobarometer that they did not identify with the EU or only identified slightly with it.

This is not only due to the generally greater skepticism towards the EU in the Serb-dominated Bosnian state Republika Srpska. Among other things, there are fears that joining the EU could inevitably be linked to joining NATO.

It is no secret that NATO membership significantly increases the prospects of membership. This has also been made clear to the accession candidates, and not just since yesterday.

Of course, those aren’t the only things to fear in the RS. The political class there rejects the few sensitive reforms that EU accession would mean for Bosnia: stricter anti-corruption laws and laws that limit political control of the judiciary.

Of course, the paper on which such laws are written is patient. Lake Romania. Lake Bulgaria. Lake Hungary. Lake Poland.

This will most likely also be experienced by Bosnians who hope that joining the EU will put an end to the corruption and nationalism of the political class.

Such changes can only come from below. In most areas, the EU doesn’t really care how democratic and constitutional its member states really are. What matters is the paper.

The reforms that are intended to eliminate the last remnants of socialist Yugoslavia are much more likely to be effective. They will come at the expense of the majority of the population.

Of course, joining the EU will only make things happen a little faster. They will come one way or another. The EU and other international organizations have not been squeamish about imposing neoliberal reforms on Eastern European states in the past. Bosnia has also had relevant experience with this policy.

Of course, joining the EU will not only have disadvantages.

Above all, membership will also open the European market for Bosnian products. Bosnia could more easily export wood, metals and some agricultural products to the EU. So far, Bosnia has had high burdens when importing into the EU.

This will give Bosnia a few crumbs of the economic cake that Germany, Austria and a handful of other states are actually sharing among themselves.

This is better than now. The market opening is currently extremely one-sided. Bosnia, politically a de facto protectorate of the EU, is economically a de facto sales market for German and Austrian companies, especially in the areas of finance, insurance and cosmetics.

The economically important gaming and betting sector is also largely in the hands of EU corporations, with disastrous social and economic consequences. (See HERE and HERE .)

Joining the EU will not bring any economic miracles.

One only has to look at the long-term effects of the European Union’s economic policy: it makes Germany and a handful of countries with similar economic structures richer – at the expense of the others. But at least the system is so finely balanced that most others at least don’t become impressed.

One could cite the economic successes of the eastern EU members as a counterexample. But in most cases the question arises as to whether the economic recovery would have occurred without EU membership. Especially since, with the exception of the Czech Republic and Slovenia, it wasn’t that big. And the Czech Republic and Slovenia were actually quite rich regions in comparison.

If you look at Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia, they are, at best, extended workbenches and training centers for urgently needed skilled workers. Without Adria, Croatia would probably have serious problems.

It seems unlikely that Bosnia will be better off than the latter states. And no matter when the EU joins, the subsequent wave of emigration will be disastrous for Bosnia – a blessing for the German economy and the Austrian one, which is nothing more than a well-off appendix to the German economy.

But without EU membership things will get even worse. There are no alternatives.

That’s the really sad news.