A new wave of mass protests reveals the deep crisis of the Kingdom of Aleksandar. While Serbia’s ruling party has been forced to make concessions it is uncertain whether the protests will lead to a fundamental change – and maybe even King Aleksandar’s dethronement.

„Are you following what’s happening in my country?“ Milan had asked me during a phone call about another story last week. „Loosely“, I said truthfully. I knew that by then Serbia’s university students had started a largely nation-wide strike over the collapse of the roof of Novi Sad’s freshly renovated train station that had killed 15 people on November 1st.

It wasn’t the first larger protest movement in the Kingdom of Aleksandar I have been following. In fact, since May last year, the realm has been in a constant crisis. Two shootings – one of them in a school in Beograd – that had killed almost 30 people had led to months of huge demonstrations.

(See here for a reportage and some background.)

The Rio Tinto project to exploit the Lithium reservoir in the Drina Valley had also caused widespread dissent and protests when the government announced it would grant permission for the mines to be built, the ensuing ecological desaster be damned.

Then there had been some protests over last year’s general elections that had been a result of the mass protests over May’s shootings. Many, including most international observers, bemoaned severe irregularities in the electoral process, some called the elections rigged.

At times, King Aleksandar’s political system had been hanging on by the skin of its teeth over the past two years. Somehow it had always survived. It had not been forced to make any major concessions – save the sacrifice of Prime Minister Ana Brnabić. Her remarks about the protests against the mass shootings had sparked outrage. After the elections, King Aleksandar promoted her to the largely ceremonial post of President of the National Assembly – roughly equivalent to Speaker of the House.

Why should this time be any different?

Invoking the Spirit of 2000

Then I saw the images of Trg Slavija in Beograd lit up by thousands and thousands of mobile phone pocket lights.

If perhaps not a fighting chance, this at least gave the protests an iconic moment.

Friends of mine started likening these protests to the Otpor movement that was partially responsible in ousting Slobodan Milošević in 2000.

And the students who lead today’s protests themselves started to reference the 90’s political movements.

„Beograd je opet svet“ a large banner read a few days ago. „Belgrade is the world again“.

The slogan „Beograd je svet“ had featured prominently in 1996 and the following years.

With this, today’s students invoke the memory of what they and many others see as Serbia’s only successful popular movement in the history of the country.

Džo and His Excavator

If only Ljubisav Đokić could see this. The man known to everybody simply as Džo bagerista. Joe the excavator driver.

He had played a central role in the downfall of Slobodan Milošević. On October 5th 2000 he broke through police barriers in the center of Beograd with his excavator, allowing protesters to occupy the building of RTS, Serbia’s national broadcaster. The next day, Milošević resigned from power.

Until his death four years ago, Džo had participated in every demonstration in Beograd against whatever political party in power – including King Aleksandar’s clerico-nationalist party SNS. (Read more about Džo here.)

He’d certainly appreciate the self confidence the students display who are organizing today’s protests.

That hasn’t been seen in a while.

Most Mass Protests Failed

While mass protests haven’t exactly been uncommon in the very recent history of Serbia, few of them had ever hoped to bring about fundamental change. And activist veterans had increasingly resigned that things in the Kingdom of Aleksandar were just the way they were and little could be done about it.

Virtually all such movements failed before. Mass protests could not stop the war as Yugoslavia was breaking up in 1991 and 1992. It left more than 100.000 people dead, most of them in Bosnia.

Following the year 2000, they failed to oust any corrupt government that followed another corrupt government.

Even in 2000, the protests themselves were only partly responsible for the fundamental political change in Serbia. At least as important was the deal then opposition leader Zoran Đinđić had struck with the country’s leading crime organisations to not oppose regime change. Until then, the mob had enjoyed a fruitful relationship with Milošević’s regime.

When Đinđić did not keep his end of the deal and went after the Serbian mafia, he was assassinated in 2003.

„30 years of protests in my home city“, a friend now living in Vienna told me recently. „Let’s hope it will change something this time“. It didn’t sound as optimistic as it may come across in writing.

There is indeed a lot to change in the Kingdom of Aleksandar, and no one knows this better than the students who now lead these protests.

They face a choice: Cozy up to the ruling party SNS or emigrate.

Many don’t want to take that anymore. But that in itself doesn’t increase their chances of bringing about fundamental change. Nor does the self confidence they display.

Signs of A Crisis

There are other signs that this crisis in the Kingdom of Aleksandar may be deeper than the ones he has faced since he first came to power ten years ago.

Following weeks of protests, Serbia’s government saw itself forced to publish at least some documents about the investigations of the collapse of the roof of Novi Sad’s train station. Unlike the resignation and even short term arrest of some token government members, in itself an almost folkloristic ritual in Serbia’s political culture, this can be seen as a major concession.

The documents, while allegedly still incomplete, tell much about the construction works during the recent renovation of the train station. And they do not disprove what virtually everyone had suspected: That the general contractor from China had subcontracted several construction companies from Serbia, many of the local entrepreneurs having close ties to SNS.

This isn’t something any government would willingly admit. Let alone one that has had as firm a grip on power and everyday life as in the Kingdom of Aleksandar.

And these things can develop a dynamic of their own and lead to the radicalizaion of protest movements and force governments to make further concessions. Similar affairs have led to the downfall of governments.

Also, the renovation of Novi Sad’s train station was part of one of King Aleksandar’s prestige projects: Connecting the capital Beograd to Europe’s high speed rail network. Novi Sad, Serbia’s second biggest city, is located alongside the tracks to Budapest. As a first result of the ongoing construction of the high speed network, a high speed train had started connecting Novi Sad and Beograd in March 2022.

The train called „Soko“ has been a pet project of SNS government members ever since. See this article in Telegraf about then Prime Minister Ana Brnabić celebrating the 1.5 millionth passenger on the train. Telegraf, a tabloid, has close ties to the ruling party, like most media outlets in Serbia do.

The tragic accident in Novi Sad that killed 15 people is a serious stain on this prestige project.

Also, that there is another wave of mass protests puts into question one of King Aleksandar’s main selling points: Stability.

It was this promise that got him into power in 2014 (and his party in 2012), and that got him the open support by at least conservative parties in the European Union for most the time since. This allowed him to play the EU against China and against Russia.

True, his reputation as a keeper of stability in the region has been somewhat tarnished by his Srpski svet project – a political strategy to tie Serb ethnic minorities in the neighboring countries closer to Beograd and his own political regime. This has arguably increased national and religious tensions, primarily in Montenegro and Bosnia.

Also, open nationalism has grown much more visible in Serbia. See here and here.

That there seems to be no end to mass protests certainly doesn’t make Serbia’s political system look more stable.

Nor that aggressors have assaulted protesting students on several occasions. Some of the suspects have been publicly identified as SNS activists and members.

True or not, this paints the picture of a regime sending out violent thugs to quelch unwelcome opposition. This is not a reputation one wants to have.

These attacks seem to have lessened since the first wave was made public.

SNS blames the violence on foreign agents, and has publicly suspected protesters of doing the bidding of foreign powers.

To paint opposition or protest movements as being in the pockets of NATO, the EU, Russia or whoever The Local Powers That Be don’t like, is part of the political playbook in the region. In itself, it is not a sign of fear or resignation. It is what Balkan – and not just Balkan – politicians do.

But maybe there is another sign that dissent is greater than it was last year. On Saturday, Serbian students will launch a solidarity protest in front of the Serbian Embassy in Vienna. It starts at 11:52 – the time the roof of Novi Sad’s train station collapsed. It is the second such protest in Vienna. Berlin has also seen one Friday of last week.

Today, students of the Faculty of Psychology in Sarajevo have called for solidarity protests. Under the slogan „Jedan svijet, jedna borba“ (One World, One Struggle) they demanded that those responsible for the tragedies of Novi Sad and of Donja Jablanica be held accountible.

Tons of granite from an illegal quarry just above the village in Hercegovina had buried the village and killed at least 17 inhabitants (click here for more).

Some of the roughly 100 protesters in Sarajevo wore gloves with their insides painted red – a symbol used by the protesters in Serbia, designating what they call the bloody hands of the regime.

Depending on how one looks at it, this was a belated or an early Christmas present to the fellow students in Serbia who carry most of the protests.

And there is candid talk of who may succeed King Aleksandar. Although not widespread, this was hitherto unknown.

Does this mean that King Aleksandar’s dethronement is on the horizon or even likely?

Not necessarily.

Nor would his resignation necessarily change the political system in the country.

But it shows that the crisis of Serbia’s political system is deeper than Serbia’s government would like to make it appear. For whatever that may be worth.

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